Preview: #4 Stanford WBB returns home to face #15 USC
On Friday at 7:00 PM PT on Pac-12 Networks and Varsity Network radio, #4 Stanford women’s basketball will take on #15 USC on The Farm. Stanford comes in at 19-2 overall and 8-1 in the Pac-12 while USC comes in at 14-4 overall and 4-4 in the Pac-12.
Last time out: On Sunday, Stanford defeated Arizona 96-64 on the road in Tucson. Cameron Brink led the way for the Cardinal with 25 points, 20 rebounds, and two blocks.
RECAP: #6 Stanford WBB whacks Wildcats in Tucson
On USC: The Trojans got off to a strong start in non-conference with a perfect 10-0 record. Their opening win of the season was against Ohio State in Las Vegas before winning nine more games against a bunch of cupcakes like Le Moyne (a school I’ve never heard of and yes they are Division I) and Long Beach State. That’s a bit of an exaggeration as they did beat a solid Penn State team by one point, but you get the idea. They had a huge win over Ohio State and then kinda coasted the rest of the way until league play. Ohio State is currently ranked #8 in the AP Top 25 Poll, so that remains a good win.
In league play, they’ve been a bit up and down. They split with UCLA, took care of business at home against the Oregon schools, got swept at the Rocky Mountain schools, and split the Washington schools at home. Still, they are very dangerous and a team who is worthy of remaining ranked in the Top 25.
The Trojans are led by freshman guard JuJu Watkins, who is averaging 25.8 points and 6.8 rebounds per game. She is one of the top talents in the country and will undoubtedly win Pac-12 Freshman of the Year. Two other Trojans are scoring in double figures on average in graduate guard/forward McKenzie Forbes (13.5 points) and junior forward/center Rayah Marshall (10.3 points & 9.6 rebounds). Both Forbes and Marshall do a nice job of taking some of the pressure off Watkins.
As a team, the Trojans average 73.4 points per game on 43.4% shooting from the field, 36.4% shooting from 3-point range, and 71.3% shooting from the foul line. They average 36.1 rebounds, 15.3 assists, 8.8 steals, 5.7 blocks, and 12.4 turnovers per game. They also average a +0.8 rebound margin and a +5.1 turnover margin per game. Their opponents average 59.8 points per game on 38.4% shooting from the field, 29.4% shooting from 3-point range, and 74.8% shooting from the foul line.
Keys to the game: The first thing Stanford needs to do is make Watkins earn her points. If she’s going to score 20+ points, it needs to be earned. They need to make things as hard on her as possible. She’s not one you can stop, but she is one you can perhaps slow down. Keeping her contained as best they can is going to be key to winning the game.
The second thing Stanford needs to do is dominate inside. That’s a strength they have against almost everybody and that includes USC. USC has the superior guard play with Watkins, but Stanford as the superior post play with Kiki Iriafen and Cameron Brink. If Stanford has a big night in the post, I’m not sure what USC will be able to do.
Finally, ball security will be key. Stanford point guard Talana Lepolo will need to take good care of the rock. USC is used to winning the turnover battle decisively. If Stanford has fewer turnovers, they’ll be in a really good position to win.
Prediction: Given they are ranked higher and are playing at home, I gotta roll with Stanford. That said, USC has the pieces to knock off Stanford and make this a game. I’m going to pick Stanford to win in a close one: 70-64. I think Brink and Iriafen as a duo end up getting the best of Watkins.
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