2024 Big East Tournament Championship Preview: #1 Connecticut vs #3 Marquette

2024 BIG EAST MEN’S BASKETBALL TOURNAMENT

CHAMPIONSHIP

#1 Connecticut Huskies (30-3, 18-2 Big East) vs #3 Marquette Golden Eagles (25-8, 14-6 Big East)

Date: Saturday, March 16, 2024
Time: 5:30pm Central
Location: Madison Square Garden, New York, New York

Marquette Stats Leaders

Points: Kam Jones, 16.9 ppg
Rebounds: Oso Ighodaro, 7.1 rpg
Assists: Tyler Kolek, 7.6 apg

Marquette Injury Note: As of verrrrrrrrrry late Friday night as I write this, there is no official update to Tyler Kolek’s condition. Head coach Shaka Smart said on Wednesday that there was no plan to play his All-American point guard on Thursday in the quarterfinals as Kolek recovers from an oblique muscle injury, and he followed that up by surmising that Kolek would be questionable for the rest of the Big East tournament if it came to that. Kolek did not play in the quarterfinals or the semifinals. For the time being, I would approach Saturday night’s game with the expectation that Kolek will not play, as his health for next week’s NCAA tournament is the most important thing..... but winning a second straight Big East tournament title is a pretty big thing, too.

But I did say there was no official update to Tyler Kolek’s condition. This is an unofficial update, I suppose:

Connecticut Stats Leaders

Points: Tristen Newton, 15.2 ppg
Rebounds: Tristen Newton, 7.1 rpg
Assists: Tristen Newton, 5.9 apg

Hey, Wait A Minute: When you type all of that out/read all of that and remember that UConn is one of three clear top contenders to the national championship AND they won the league by FOUR GAMES over Creighton and Marquette..... it’s a little silly that Devin Carter beat out Newton for Big East Player of the Year, isn’t it?

KenPom.com Rankings

Marquette: #13
Connecticut: #2
Game Projection: Marquette has a 30% chance of victory, with a predicted score of 77-72.

Earlier This Season: Connecticut took the season sweep of Marquette, winning both in Hartford and in Milwaukee. The game at the XL Center snapped an eight game winning streak by Marquette and was ultimately a disappointment on the national stage as #1 UConn smushed the #4 ranked Golden Eagles, 81-53. After an 18-18 start, UConn closed the first half on a 24-8 run and Marquette didn’t score consecutive baskets again until there was less than three minutes to go.

The second meeting had the same result in the win/loss column, but a much different pathway to get there. #8 Marquette ripped off a 12-0 run against the Huskies early in Milwaukee, but #2 UConn tipped it back with a 21-7 burst and mostly held MU at arm’s length from there. It got interesting late as Marquette got five straight stops and pulled within five with a minute to play, but that’s as close as they got in a 74-67 final. The catch there, is that Marquette was without Tyler Kolek in that game, and that was four days after Oso Ighodaro had to miss a game due to illness. I’m guessing very few guys on the team were at 100% if that’s the case, but it was still a much closer outcome than the first meeting.

Since Last We Met: The second meeting was the second-to-last game of the regular season for both squads, so I’ll mention that UConn smothered Providence 74-60 on the road to wrap up their 18-2 Big East record and then we will move on to the tournament games......

How Did They Get Here: As the top seed in the tournament, UConn got a bye to the quarterfinals and got a game against Xavier to open things up. They were instantly in trouble, falling behind 10-0 after the opening tip..... and then immediately took a 13-10 lead with a run of their own. They didn’t start to separate from the X-Men until the second half, and by the time the Huskies went on an 18-2 run late in their 87-60 win, the outcome was already seeming like it was decided.

On to Friday’s semifinal, where St. John’s advanced to face off with UConn. Points were the name of the game here, as it was 52-47 at intermission. The contest probably turned when the Huskies went on a 13-2 run early in the second half, because that had them up 69-56. It ended up as a 95-90 final, but it was 91-83 with less than a minute to go, it’s hard to say that St. John’s really had the Huskies in a bind late, but that score makes it look like it was close.

Tempo Free Fun: When I wrote the preview for the second UConn game, it was a relatively simple preview. Either Marquette learned a lot of lessons about what to do against the Huskies from the first meeting or they didn’t. On top of that, either Marquettte learned how to play without Tyler Kolek in the previous game, or they didn’t.

Now, since it ended up as a loss, I think we have to say that both items get filed as “they didn’t.” But, it’s hard to say that because Marquette did make Connecticut work for their win, so it’s clear that things went much better than they did in Hartford, especially when you take into account the fact that Kolek was on the sideline. Now Marquette has had three more games to get used to playing without Kolek, and it’s clear that they’re much better at it now than they were on March 6th. How does a third meeting between these two go if MU has had more time to figure the Huskies out AND more time to figure themselves out, presuming that Kolek stays in warmups the whole time?

Or what happens when Shaka Smart gives his All-American point guard and his strained torso a chance to see how they feel in live action and it’s time for some pent up energy to get spent by a player who lives on emotions and energy on the court? Interesting, isn’t it?

When you look at the two games, the end results are kind of weird, given the pathway that UConn took to get there. It was the seven point win where Alex Karaban and Cam Spencer went nuts behind the arc, combining to shoot 10-for-16 on three-pointers. Those two guys were nearly non-factors in the 28 point win, combining for a 3-for-12 shooting performance from outside the arc. I said it at the time: If you had told me Marquette was going to lose by nearly 30, I would have said that it was Karaban and Spencer running wild that did it. But that’s not what happened, and Marquette kept it interesting and close when they did. Weird, right?

13 UConn turnovers played a part, but the Huskies had 12 in the first meeting. Marquette got a bit crushed on the glass in Milwaukee, which isn’t surprising, because Connecticut is a top 15 offensive rebounding squad and no slouch on the defensive glass, according to KenPom.com’s rate statistics. The big reason, it seems, that Marquette stayed within shouting distance is because they made UConn inefficient inside the arc. UConn shot under 39% on two-point attempts in Milwaukee. The primary things to note there are Donovan Clingan going 3-for-9 and Stephon Castle going 2-for-7. If Marquette can find a way to duplicate that — and stop Clingan and Karaban from getting four extra chances each, by the way — then that might be the ticket to a title. Of course, the thing to consider is whether or not Marquette can cause those problems inside while still making Karaban and Spencer struggle to get clean looks outside. If they had gone 3-for-12 again, Marquette probably wins in Milwaukee, given everything else that was going on.

Marquette Last 10 Games: 7-3 with wins in each of their last three contests.

Connecticut Last 10 Games: 9-1 with only a road loss at Creighton tripping them up.

All Time Series: UConn leads 10-8.

Current Streak: Winning the season sweep gives UConn two straight wins over Marquette, and the Huskies have won seven of the last nine. Shouts to Jeri Ryan.